Now that the vote is in and the people have spoken, it is time to look at two critical pre-referendum threats regarding Britain’s position in the world without the dubious benefits of the European Union. The big question is, were those threats like the proverbial dog, one that barks but never bites? Or will those threats be executed in their fullness?
First Threat
The first threat goes to Barack Obama, who had this to say when he warned Britain about exiting the EU and advised them to stay:
“And on that matter, for example, I think it’s fair to say that maybe some point down the line there might be a UK-US trade agreement, but it’s not going to happen any time soon because our focus is in negotiating with a big bloc, the European Union, to get a trade agreement done. The UK is going to be in the back of the queue.”
This is an interesting point to make. The U.K is on the road to becoming the fourth biggest economy in the world, surpassing Germany. But Obama has made it clear that economic powerhouses like Venezuela will get a seat in the Trade agreement queue before the U.K. That is a really odd position to take, especially with a country that already has a special relationship with the U.S. The second difficulty with this threat is that Obama would only have four months to keep this policy alive, unless Hillary and the Donald continue it. I would say, just like Obama’s threat regarding red lines and chemical warfare, this one will also be all bark and no bite.
Second Threat
Another threat was made by the EU President, Mr. Juncker. A man well known for stating that if the French voted against the 2005 EU constitution he would just disregard the vote and continue imposing it. So, not a lover of democracy. Therefore, it comes as no surprise that this is what he had to say about the Brexit:
“There will be no further renegotiation of Britain’s relationship with the EU if the vote is to Leave. Out is out.”
Being friends isn’t good enough for Juncker, he only wants you in his life if you are a fully-fledged lover. Again, it is really a rather self-destructive declaration to make, as a relationship with Britain that is not bound to EU confines can still be a good thing for the European Union. For example, German industrial heavyweights have already weighed in saying that they want a free trade deal with Britain due to the economic benefits.
On the whole I would say neither threat should be taken seriously. The first was made by someone who likes to threaten things, but for one reason or another doesn’t carry out these threats (e.g. red lines in Syria). The second was made by a man desperate to raise the stakes in order to unnerve his Brexiteer opponents. But more importantly, statements made before a historic referendum should all be treated with caution, as no one really knows what’s going to happen in the aftermath. There is already talk of referendums being held in Italy, France and the Netherlands.
Update: Since writing this Obama has stood by his position that Britain is at the end of the queue, but with four months left of his presidency, does anyone care about what he has to say. Donald Trump, a potential successor, disagrees with Obama on this point. And Hillary, another potential successor, has remained silent.